Timber Investing Blog

This page is a blog that we keep on timberland investment news, ideas & issues. 

Another good blog (better, really) on these topics is The Timberland Blog by Brian Fiacco (click here).
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Wet weather across the South may lead to better stumpage prices

September 22, 2009
By Bucky Henson

We haven't posted much over the last year or so, because, really, there hasn't been much to say.  Timber prices have been relatively low, climate legislation has been stalled during the health care debate (not necessarily a bad thing), and timberland prices in general have been stagnant.

Not much change to report on climate legislation (there's a big meeting at the UN today on it) or timberland prices, but we may see some real movement in stumpage prices over the next few months.  Wet weather and a reduced logging force across the South may impact the supply of wood to mills.  Of course, lumber prices remain low, so the upside potential for sawlog prices may be limited.  But, if you have pine or hardwood pulpwood that can be accessed during wet weather, this may be a good time to consider planning (or to plan to consider) a harvest.

We don't post prices or even price ranges here, but you can email us if you have something specific to discuss.

There is a big conference in Copenhagen in December on climate change.  It is said that the meeting could be at least as influential as Kyoto was.  One man's take on the meeting can be found here:  Copenhagen.
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A really good article on timberland investment

December 18, 2008
By Staff

We came across a really good article for anyone interested in timberland investments.  The author is a CPA named Robert Stammers.  Stammers presents a fairly concise and easy to read summary of the growth of timberland investment over the last twenty or thirty years.  It's a good read for any timberland investor:

Timber Investments Cut Down Portfolio Risk, by Robert Stammers
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Potential alternative income sources from timberland
(biofuels and carbon credits)

November 14, 2008
By Bucky Henson

I recently attended a meeting of timberland managers and potential investors (including large institutional investors) where a number of issues affecting timberland investments were discussed.  As you would expect, potential investors want to understand the cash flows and returns associated with the assets that they may purchase.

Of course, with the U. S. housing market on life-support, the outlook for solid wood products - particularly lumber and panels - is pretty bleak for the next year or so.  We all expect that to turn around eventually, but it's still not much fun to talk about now.

There were, though, discussions of some other interesting topics related to timberland investment returns:  biofuels and carbon credits.

At the time of our last entry, crude oil was priced at $135 per barrel on its way to a peak of $147.  Now, it's below $57 per barrel.

While we're not hearing "Drill, baby, drill!" as often as we were back in the summer, $4 per gallon gas will not soon fade from our collective memory.  So, even though we're hearing of biofuel (mostly corn ethanol) producers falling on hard times due to the precipitous drop in oil prices, it's not time to give up on wood biofuels development. 

According to several speakers at the meeting, there continue to be streams of funding in several wood biofuel projects in and outside of the U. S.  With the arrival of President-elect Barack Obama's administration in January, we can expect expanding emphasis on alternative and renewable fuels by the U. S. government.

Development of enzymes to efficiently break down wood cellulose first into sugar and then alcohol seems to be the current focus of research and development of wood biofuels.  Click this link for a pretty good article that I found on the subject:

New Technology Foresees Trees, not Grain, in the Tank

The bottom line for us is that, in addition to growing products in the forest to be used for solid wood, other construction materials and paper, we may also be growing renewable energy that our children will use someday.  Also, that energy may provide timberland owners with outstanding investment returns!

Another big topic on the minds of timberland investors these days is "carbon credits."  We hear the term "Cap-And-Trade" on CNBC and other news outlets on a regular basis, but what is "Cap-And-Trade?"

Cap-And-Trade is a compromise between humans' need to produce (energy, goods, etc.) and the need (perceived or real - we won't go there now) to slow, halt or reverse global warming.  The international treaty for the control of greenhouse gasses known as the Kyoto Protocol (which the U. S. has not signed) calls for nations to place restrictions on their emissions of - most notably - carbon dioxide. 

Although sometimes voluntary, the Cap-And-Trade process usually begins when governments place "caps" on the net amount of carbon emissions (greenhouse gasses) that their nations' producers of energy and products are allowed to release into the atmosphere.  The governments issue or sell carbon emission permits (also know as carbon credits) to producers to allow them to conduct business.

The "net" part of "net emissions" is important, because, if a producer's emissions of greenhouse gasses exceed the producer's cap, the producer is allowed to purchase or "trade" for carbon credits to "offset" its excess emissions (you'll often hear the term "offsets" in discussions of carbon credit trading).  If a producer's emissions are lower than its cap, the producer can sell or "trade" its excess carbon credits to another producer that needs offsets.

So, how does this affect timberland owners?  Remember this term:  Sequestration.

Trees capture and store (sequester) carbon from the atmosphere.  So, timberland owners have a built-in carbon "sink" on their property.  Timberland owners can receive "credits" for the carbon that is stored in their trees, and those credits can be sold to carbon emitters in need of offsets.

The market for carbon credits is much more developed at this time in Europe than in the U. S.  That is because, unlike in the U. S., mandatory limits on emissions have already been established in Europe.  European emitters of greenhouse gasses have no choice but to purchase carbon credits.  In the U. S., many companies and individuals are voluntarily purchasing carbon credits to offset their "carbon footprint," or their net contribution to the emission of greenhouse gasses. 

For now, the Chicago Climate Exchange is the most notable market for carbon trading in the U. S.  The U. S. market is in its early stages, but count on the Obama administration and congress to push the global warming agenda in this country over the next four years.  Now is a good time for timberland owners and investors to become familiar with these issues.

Look for a coming blog entry on the American Tree Farm System and forest certification - particularly for non-industrial private landowners.  It is likely that only certified forests in the U. S. will be allowed to participate in carbon trading.  Certification is not difficult, but it does take some time and it is becoming more important every year - not only in terms of carbon trading but also in terms of all forest products that are delivered to market.  The green economy is here, and timberland owners need to plan to be a part of it and to take advantage of the opportunities that it will provide.

We'll follow up here with more information on carbon credits as they relate to timberland as that market continues to develop.  In the meantime, you can follow these links to a couple of good articles on the basics of carbon trading:

Carbon Trading Primer

Welcome to Carbon Trading: A Primer for Forest Landowners

As for how the potential for biofuels and/or carbon credits affects the value of timberland, we are not currently placing any additional value on an acre of timberland in the expectation of returns from either of the two.  Still, both bear watching.

Please feel free to write or call anytime with questions.  We'll try to get answers for you on these or any other timberland topics that interest you.
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Do timberland investments provide a hedge against inflation?
Where do we stand on wood-based biofuels?

May 22, 2008
By Bucky Henson

Timberland as an inflation hedge

Regarding timberland, a common thread of conversations among investment experts is that timberland investments provide an inflation hedge.

Since inflation in the United States has been so low  for the last several years, we haven't placed a lot of emphasis on this potential feature of timberland investments. 

But, with the price of oil hitting $135 (in overnight trading) a few days ago and with expectations of further increases in oil and other commodity prices driving overall prices higher, we need to take a fresh look at the strong historical correlations between U. S. timberland investment returns and U. S. inflation (namely, the CPI).

I found a few interesting articles on the topic. 

A good thumbnail discussion can be found here:
Inflation and Timberland Returns (Lutz)

For a very complete, technical discussion, click here:
Do Forest Assets Hedge Inflation? (Binkley & Washburn)

I think the important take-away from these discussions is that timberland investments have had a strong correlation with inflation since about 1970 and that they MAY provide a means of maintaining investment values through the near-term inflation that we expect to see.

Cellulose-based biofuels

Also, speaking of oil, Brian has a good discussion of the status of the development of biofuels from wood fiber on his blog (link at the top of this page). 

I hear that the Farm Bill that Congress had so much fun with this week includes increased funding for the development of biofuels from cellulose (including wood fiber).  We can credit this to the fact that ethanol from corn has lost a lot of its appeal lately due to the recent price increases in corn and other corn-related commodities. 

Hopefully, this provision wasn't a part of the section of the bill that was left out when it was sent to the President. 

As you know, the President vetoed the nearly-complete bill and will probably veto the complete bill.  But, it appears that all of his vetoes on this bill will suffer overrides.
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On the job front...

April 21, 2008
By Bucky Henson

Buchanan Forest Management has an opening for a "Management Forester."  This individual will be one of our point people working with our landowner clients to understand and help us meet their needs.  See our Employment page for more information (May 22, 2008 - this position has been filled).
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Notes on markets, etc...

April 1, 2008
By Bucky Henson

As the stock markets rally today, we are taking a look around our area, the nation, and North America for indications of how different people are looking at forest products and timberland markets.

My favorite news item of the day comes from the Reuters website and regards Plum Creek Timber (NYSE Ticker Symbol:  PCL).  Click here for the story:

Plum Creek Outlook

It doesn't look to Plum Creek (or to us) that lumber prices are likely to improve dramatically over the next few months.  We continue to see mill closures and cutbacks across the nation (Potlatch Arkansas mill closure) as the effects of the sub-prime mortgage mess continue to suppress U. S. housing starts.  The weak U. S. market is also affecting Canadian lumber manufacturers (Tembec market outage) (U. S. and Canadian lumber manufacturers suffer).

On the bright side, pulp and paper markets remain strong.  Other specialty wood products (utility poles, cross-ties) are still in demand.  Wood continues to move from the stump to the mill, at least in our area.

Also on the bright side (depending on how you look at it) is the fact that Plum Creek expects land sales to pick up in the latter half of 2008 (see the article noted above).  With interest rates at relatively low levels and with what seems to be a feeling that 2009 could see better prices for wood products, maybe that expectation will be realized.  We'll see.

Fire Suppression and Prescribed Burning

We encourage you to read Brian Fiacco's blog entry on fire suppression and other fire-related issues on his Timberland Blog (see link at the top of the page).  This is a relevant topic for all timberland owners.  Funding for fire suppression is important - as are issues involving legal liability for one of forestry's best tools:  Prescribed Burning.
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Pine Pulpwood prices in Buchanan's operating area on the rise

January 10, 2008
By Bucky Henson

In what is probably a somewhat short-lived movement, pulpwood prices in Central and South Alabama have risen significantly over the last couple of weeks.  Low inventories, Christmas holidays, and a bit more rain than we've had over the last two years have paper mills rightly concerned about their winter inventories.

Higher prices generally result in greater supply, so this increase will probably last only so long.  However, as we've been telling you on this blog, the overall usage of pulpwood fiber - particularly pine pulpwood fiber - is increasing in our area.  International Paper's return to the use of pine fiber at it's Cantonment (Pensacola), Florida mill and the new high-capacity OSB plant that Louisiana Pacific has built at Thomasville, Alabama will continue to exert upward pressure on the price of pine pulpwood across our region.  In addition to those plants, there also are the wood-pellet plants that we've discussed going in across the South - also using pine pulpwood fiber.

We believe (anecdotally) that many landowners in our area have been holding back on their initial pine plantation thinnings waiting for a big price increase on pine pulpwood.  If the timing is right, a landowner can catch a good price for his/her pulpwood during a time when ground conditions are good for thinning. (However, we should beware of thinning our pine plantations during really wet weather just because a good price is available.  In many soils, extreme moisture will soften the ground such that logging equipment can damage the root systems of the trees that are left after the thinning).

Anyway, pine pulpwood price fluctuation is difficult to predict, but we should see it in our area - at least for a while.
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Why are paper companies selling their land?

September 28, 2007
By Bucky Henson

On August 9, I told you that we would offer a discussion of why paper companies have been selling their timberlands and whether or not it was because they believe that timberland is not a good investment.  As we hinted, that is not the reason. 

I recently read a really good article that explains why these companies have decided to divest their timberlands.  It was written by Mike Clutter (who was recently named dean of the David B. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources at the University of Georgia located in Athens, Georgia), Tony Cascio and David Newman.  I've received permission to offer it here in an Adobe .PDF format:

Click here to download the .PDF document.

Please let us know if you have any thoughts about this discussion.
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Another Southeastern U. S. wood pellet plant to open soon

September 27, 2007
By Bucky Henson

We received an email from a friend today about another wood pellet plant that is set to open in Southeast Georgia by the end of the year.  Appling County Pellets, LLC, a division of Fram Renewable Fuels, LLC, will be producing commercial wood pellets at a plant located near Baxley, Georgia to ship to Europe through ports in Savannah and Brunswick, Georgia.

For more information about Fram, click here:  www.framfuels.com.

We don't have estimated volumes of wood use, yet.  But, we'll update this page when we get them.
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Temple-Inland will sell 1.6 million acres of timberland in a deal with The Campbell Group

August 9, 2007
By Bucky Henson

In the last of the "big" paper company land sales anticipated by the industry over the last few years, Austin, Texas - based Temple-Inland, Inc. (NYSE:  TIN) announced that the company will sell some 1.6 million acres of timberland to investors represented by the Campbell Group - a timberland investment management company based in Portland, Oregon.  The purchase price is reported to be $2.38 billion.  The sale is part of an overall reorganization of Temple-Inland.

Temple-Inland is primarily a packaging and forest products company.  Earlier this year, Carl Icahn, the noted investor-activist (sometimes referred to as a corporate raider) bought an almost 7% share of the company.  The decision to make the land sale and the accompanying restructuring of the company is said to have been at least strongly influenced by Icahn.

Keep an eye here on our news page for a discussion of why paper companies are selling land and whether or not the sales suggest that these companies believe that timberland is not a good investment.  Hint:  That is not why they are selling timberland.
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MeadWestvaco agrees to sell 228,000 acres of timberlands located in the Southeast U. S.

August 8, 2007
By Bucky Henson

Paper & wood products manufacturer MeadWestvaco Corporation (NYSE:  MWV) announced this week that the company will sell approximately 228,000 acres of timberlands that it owns and its long-term timber contracts (or leases) on another 95,000 acres or so to Wells Timberland REIT, based in Norcross, Georgia, for $400 million.

The timberlands are located primarily in Southwest Georgia and Southeast Alabama.  Like the recent International Paper sale of timberlands, the deal includes a fiber-supply agreement whereby MeadWestvaco will purchase wood from about 300,000 acres (virtually all of the acres involved in the deal) that are within trucking range of its Mahrt, Alabama paperboard mill.

The land is said to now be stocked with about 13.5 million tons (and growing) of merchantable timber - mostly southern yellow pine sawtimber and pulpwood.

Wells Timberland REIT is a new, public, non-traded timberland fund (the first of its kind) created by Wells Real Estate Funds, a national real estate investment company based in Norcross, near Atlanta.  The MeadWestvaco purchase will be the first for the newly created timberland fund.  The fund will seek to return value to its investors by selling timber and land-use rights (hunting/recreation leases, etc.).  We do not know what mineral rights may or may not be included in the transaction.

This transaction is the next-to-last "big" paper company land sale that has been anticipated over the last year or so.  The last "big" sale that has been expected is the sale of Temple-Inland's timberland holdings.  We'll have an article on that deal soon.
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Funding approved by U. S. Senate for dredging of the Alabama-Coosa River System
May 31, 2007
By Buchanan Staff

The following are excerpts from a press release from U. S.  Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL)...

May 24, 2007

U. S. Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, today announced Senate approval of funding for Alabama included in the fiscal year 2007 (FY07) Emergency Supplemental Appropriations bill.  This legislation will now go to the President for his signature.

“As we continue our military operations abroad, it is my goal to work in every possible way to make sure that General Petraeus and our troops have my full support, both morally and materially, to carry out their mission,” said Shelby.  “This legislation reinforces the U.S. Senate’s commitment to warfighters in harm’s way and I was proud to vote in favor of it.”

Among other details of the bill mentioned in the release:

Alabama-Coosa River System Dredging Project - $3 million

The Alabama-Coosa river system was seriously damaged when Hurricane Dennis wreaked havoc on the Gulf Coast.  The state of the river system has significantly strained existing industry that relies on the river. As an example, the silting and shoaling as a result of Dennis is increasing the transportation costs of a single industry on the river by $100,000 each month.  The Army Corps of Engineers will use this funding to begin dredging the system to alleviate the problems that have plagued barge traffic over the past several years. 

“The Alabama-Coosa River runs through an economically depressed area of the state in serious need of industry and good paying jobs,” said Shelby.  “If the Alabama-Coosa can achieve full operational status, jobs and industry will follow.  We must not forget the damage these counties have endured.  The dredging will ensure that this vital waterway is restored to the people of Alabama.”

This is great news for Alabama - in particular for the Selma, Alabama wood pellet manufacturer that we mentioned earlier.  The dredging will allow Dixie Pellet, LLC to ship its product to markets in the EU.  This is also good news for timberland owners in our area, as it helps establish another market and greater utilization of the wood that we grow.

As the press release notes, dredging of the river system will help the State of Alabama as a whole by allowing industries of all sorts to ship products to customers and from suppliers in a cost-effective manner.
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Drought conditions continue across the deep south
May 14, 2007
By Buchanan Staff

Across Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, we are continuing to experience severe drought conditions.  There were a few thunderstorms that popped up over the weekend, but we are still in need of rain.  As is usually the case during droughts, trees and wood markets are feeling negative effects.

Although we have yet to see severe outbreaks of Southern Pine Beetle (SPB) infestations across our operating region, we have seen a number of problem areas that we believe are either caused by or taken advantage of by the Ips Engraver Beetle.  We believe that the severe drought conditions over the last year or two have weakened many trees and left them subject to attack by parasites such as the Ips Beetle. 

Do we know whether or not Ips Beetles kill each tree?  No.  Some trees simply expire due to the drought, and some may be weakened or killed by some other parasite or disease.

Control of Ips infestations can be difficult.  Whereas, in our area, SPB tend to infest all of the trees in a "patch" of maybe 10 to 100 trees or more, the Ips Beetle tends to infest and kill "a tree or two here and a tree or two there." 

In the case of a SPB infestation, we usually cut all of the trees in the infested patch and then cut a buffer of green trees around the patch (not unlike excising cancerous tissue). 

In the case of an Ips infestation, we generally don't wish to cut the "apparently" healthy green trees, because we're waiting for the best market conditions and optimal tree size for the harvest of those trees.  So, we have to watch and wait.  It's always a judgment call, but sometimes, the damage from the Ips and/or the drought is severe enough that a salvage harvest is necessary.

Unfortunately, drought conditions usually coincide with less-than-optimal market conditions.  In the South (unlike some regions) the best, easiest time to harvest timber is during dry times.  Whether harvesting timber on a hillside or in a swamp bottom, the drier, the better for a logging crew.  Therefore, delivered wood supply is at a peak during these dry times.  Mills across the south will often have more wood available to them than they need.  As a result, the mills do not have to pay as much for that wood as they do when they "need" it. 

Fortunately, wood is moving in our area at present.  The prices may not be the best ever, but they are not the worst ever, either.

So, we watch, wait, and - when necessary - act.
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Southern Hardwood Forest Research Group Seminar
April 25, 2007
By Buchanan Staff

Last week, Buchanan hosted some 80 individuals from across the south on Buchanan's King Place (located in King's Bend on the Alabama River near Selma).  The group toured a number of ongoing hardwood regeneration study areas as well as enjoying lunch and fellowship time.

If you would like more information on the Southern Hardwood Forest Research Group, please contact us at info@buchananforest.com, or just give us a call.
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Buchanan Forest Management to host hardwood research group in April 2007
March 14, 2007
By Bucky Henson, Buchanan Forest Management

On April 19, 2007, Buchanan Forest Management will host a day-long seminar on Southern hardwood regeneration and management by the Southern Hardwood Forest Research Group.  We plan to tour several tracts in Dallas County, Alabama (where our home office is located) where we have ongoing hardwood regeneration projects.

The Southern Hardwood Forest Research Group is a gathering of scientists, registered foresters and interested individuals who meet regularly to discuss topics and issues related to Southern hardwood forests.

Hosting this seminar and similar functions is part of Buchanan's continuing involvement in forest research with a particular interest in Southern hardwood research.

If you have an interest in attending the seminar or have questions, please contact us.  The seminar will start in Selma around 9:00 AM and conclude around 3:00 PM.  Lunch will be served in the woods.
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New wood-based manufacturing in the Southeast U. S. coming online in late 2007 and early 2008
March 13, 2007
By Buchanan Forest Management Staff

A number of significant developments affecting Southeastern U. S. timber markets are slated to take place in the latter part of '07 and '08.  Thanks to the investment of literally hundreds of millions of dollars in new facilities and equipment, several new and/or improved wood-based manufacturing sites will begin or restart production during that timeframe.  This is a recap of the ones that we know at least something about.  If you know of others, please, PLEASE let us know.

Louisiana Pacific OSB Mill - Thomasville, Alabama

Picture courtesy of Louisiana Pacific's website.

Announced in late 2004, Louisiana Pacific's new $120 Million-plus OSB (oriented strand board) plant is expected to begin production in late 2007 or early 2008.  The plant is expected to use primarily Southern yellow pine "pulpwood" (wood that is either too small or too rough for sawing for lumber or peeling for veneer and which has traditionally been used for paper production).

We hear that the plant will consume as much as a million to a million and a half tons of roundwood per year.  The term "roundwood" refers to tree stems or parts thereof that have been harvested, placed on a log trailer and hauled to a mill to be run through a chipper, sawmill or veneer plant.

We're guessing that most of the wood for this mill will come from West Central and Southwest Alabama and from East Central and Southeast Mississippi, but it should be expected that this new consumption will affect wood markets across the region.

More information on this mill can be found at:  LP Thomasville.

Wood Pellet Plants - Dallas County, Alabama and Jackson County, Florida

Two other facilities guaranteed to impact regional wood markets are planned wood pellet plants in Alabama and Florida.

An emerging market for Southeast timberland owners is coming from the European Union.  In a nutshell, regulations in the EU require electricity producers to use renewable resources as a share of their raw materials.  As a result, these producers are purchasing wood pellets to supplement coal and other materials in their facilities.  The U. S., with its bounty of wood, is providing a lot of that supplemental material.  Run an internet search on "EU wood pellets and energy," and you'll get all sorts of information about this growing market.

New Gas Concepts, Inc. is building a $100 Million-plus facility, Dixie Pellets, LLC, in Dallas County, Alabama just outside Selma.  The plant is scheduled to begin shipping product in late 2007 or 2008.  According to New Gas Concepts' website, this project:

"...involves the construction and operation of the world’s largest wood pellet production plant in Selma, Alabama. The pellets will be barged down the Alabama River to the Port of Mobile, and exported to European Union electrical utilities as feedstock for power generation. Because Dixie Pellets will utilize renewable wood sources, gasification technology, and will minimize the carbon emissions in transportation, its pellets qualify as a “green” energy source in the EU. Favorable incentives for green power sources make the pellets valuable to buyers in the EU."

We think that this facility will consume roundwood at a rate of, maybe, a half of a million tons or more per year; although, we understand that a lot of the wood for this plant will come in the form of dust and shavings from other wood products facilities such as sawmills and veneer plants.  We'll know more as the plant's opening draws near.

New Gas Concepts' website can be reached here:  New Gas Concepts.

On a 225-acres site near Cottondale, in Jackson County, Florida (in the Panhandle), a new wood pellet plant is being constructed by the JCE Group of companies.  JCE Group, headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden, has operations worldwide in diverse industries such as oil & gas, forestry, real estate, construction, distribution and IT/telecom.

This plant will also provide wood pellets for EU electricity producers.  JCE is making a $100 million investment in a new subsidiary, Green Circle Bioenergy, Inc. in Florida to produce the pellets.  We've read that the plant may use between 300,000 and 500,000 tons of wood or more per year - a lot of which will be roundwood, we can guess.

More information about the Cottondale plant can be found on the JCE Group website at:  JCE/Green Circle.

International Paper - Cantonment, Florida Paper Mill

Maybe the biggest news at this point has to do with IP's existing mill near Pensacola.  This mill was converted several years ago to a "white" paper mill using eucalyptus chips from South America.  In 2006, IP decided to convert the mill back to a "brown" paper mill producing linerboard.  As a result, the mill will be using Southern yellow pine almost exclusively as early as late 2007.

We guess that this will increase their pine pulpwood consumption to as much as 1.2 to 1.5 million tons per year, maybe more.  Anyway, it's going to use a lot of wood.

So, in all, we're looking at additional consumption of mostly pine pulpwood on the order of some 3 to 4 million tons annually across a big part of our region (Northwest Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi).  That is, of course, assuming that current production levels are maintained at the other existing facilities (paper mills, etc.).  This should be good news for timberland owners in our area.

Buchanan Forest Management
1064 Valley Creek Church Road
P. O. Box 990
Selma, Alabama  36702-0990
Phone:  334-872-0491
Fax:  334-875-9436
Email:  info@buchananforest.com

All photographs on this website were taken on timberland managed by  Buchanan.